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By: Isabel Povey
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET)[i] is a formerly USAID-funded provider of early warnings and analysis on acute food insecurity. It uses remote-sensing satellite imagery to monitor and forecast climatic conditions in the world’s more food-insecure countries, helping prevent humanitarian crises before they occur. It has operated for three decades as a sophisticated monitoring system that silently saves countless lives, preventing an estimated 10 million pediatric famine deaths during its tenure.[ii] By combining advanced climate science with on-the-ground market and local livelihood analyses, it can provide early warnings of food crises months in advance.
However, FEWS NET has faced challenges since the Trump administration dismantled USAID. After being offline since January, the site resumed in July with funding from the Department of State.[iii] However, its future remains uncertain due to budget cuts that have put the program’s efficiency and effectiveness under the microscope. This article highlights the importance of FEWS NET and outlines reasons why its funding should be a national and global priority.
The Cost of Inaction
The consequences of failing to invest in early warning systems are dire. When warnings are inadequate or absent, communities are left vulnerable to the full impact of disasters and conflict. The aftermath of such crises is often catastrophic: not only in terms of loss of life but also in the long-term socio-economic ramifications. The cost of addressing a crisis after it occurs often far exceeds the cost of funding preventative measures.
In contrast, investing in early warning systems can lead to significant savings in recovery and rehabilitation costs. Funding these systems is an economically sound decision that can save governments and organizations billions in post-disaster recovery costs.
The Power to Stop Famine Before it Starts
The tragic 2011 Somalia Famine serves as a stark case studyiv in the cruciality of early warnings. For 11 months before the official famine declaration on July 20th, 2011, FEWS NET provided a series of increasingly urgent warnings about the deteriorating situation. Despite this crescendo of alerts, it was only after the UN’s formal Famine declaration[v]that funding and aid spiked dramatically. By then, it was too late; tens of thousands of excess deaths had already occurred, most of them children.
FEWS NET’s monitoring of Ethiopia from mid‑2015 through 2016 is another critical example showing the importance of early warnings. When a routine scenario analysis identified widespread crop failures, livestock losses, and rising food prices across the southeastern highlands and lowlands, FEWS NET projected that large numbers of people would face emergency outcomes without urgent scaled assistance.[vi] Those estimates were used by the Ethiopian government, UN agencies, and donors to prioritize districts for emergency food aid, scale up cash‑based transfers in regions where markets functioned, pre‑position food stocks, and target nutrition services for children and pregnant/lactating women. The immediate and preemptive actions that FEWS NET’s report sparked averted what was on track to become a high‑mortality famine across much of the country.
These statistics demonstrate that timely intervention, spurred by accurate forecasts, can dramatically alter the trajectory of a crisis. However, to harness this potential, sustained funding and support for early warning systems are necessary.
The Value in “Wrong” Predictions
A 2021 study[vii]validating FEWS NET projections found that, while its forecasts are highly accurate overall (around 84%), accuracy drops at the most severe levels of food insecurity. For these high-stakes predictions, there is a statistical bias toward over-projecting the severity of the crisis.
The reason is clear: alarming forecasts often trigger essential humanitarian assistance that prevents dire outcomes. For projections classified as “Emergency” (IPC Phase 4) that receive humanitarian aid, nearly 86% are later reassessed to Phase 3, “Crisis”, with another 14% to Phase 2, “Stress.” While the forecast accurately predicted the crisis’s trajectory, the life-saving response it inspired altered the actual outcomes. The misclassification, therefore, reflects a deliberate trade-off: prioritizing Type I errors (over warning) to avoid Type II errors (failing to warn and under responding), since an underestimated emergency risk results in far greater mortality and long-term harm than a precautionary, resource-intensive response.
Space-Age Tools Fighting an Age-Old Problem
FEWS NET’s analysis is not based on guesswork. Technology has transformed the landscape of early warning systems. Advances in data collection, satellite imagery, and predictive analytics allow for more accurate and timely forecasts. This blend of cutting-edge science and humanitarian work provides the objective evidence needed to make life-or-death decisions.
Specific examples of the technology used include:[viii]
- Pinpointing emerging drought conditions by monitoring global rainfall in near real-time with infrared tools.
- Assessing crop and pasture health from space using satellite imagery: a politically vital technology in contexts like Zimbabwe, where objective data was needed to counter official disinformation.
- And gauging critical water reserves by monitoring crucial variables that rain gauges can’t see, such as surface and root zone soil moisture and groundwater storage.
This evidence-based approach provides the objective, quantitative data essential for convincing governments and donors about where and when to send aid. However, to fully leverage these technological advancements, consistent funding is crucial.
Providing Objective Truth When Governments Won’t
During the 2006 crisis, Zimbabwe’s government obscured the true extent of food insecurity and falsified national crop production data. In response, FEWS NET used satellite remote sensing to provide an independent estimate of grain production. This objective analysis[ix] was vital for assessing support needs and enabled humanitarian partners to agree on actions grounded in credible evidence rather than political rhetoric. While FEWS NET cannot ensure a timely response, dependent on political will, it offers crucial, objective truths essential for initiating effective interventions.
The Most Effective Government Program You’ve Never Heard Of
In a 2005 U.S. government-commissioned report on the effectiveness of global institutions, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and former Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell offered a powerful endorsement[x], calling the FEWS project: “per dollar invested, one of the most efficient and high-impact efforts that Congress has ever funded, saving millions of lives by catalyzing timely aid.”
This praise underscores a critical point: continued investment in this network is not just about funding a data project. It is about maintaining a proven, life-saving global asset.
Famine doesn’t pause with a Funding Freeze
While FEWS NET was brought back online in mid‑2025 after a brief pause, its relaunch acknowledged outstanding data‑collection and coverage gaps created by that interruption. The pause and broader USAID funding freeze weakened oversight and operational capacity, including stalled country office staffing, disrupted partner contracts, and constrained rapid response funding[xi]. These shortfalls have translated into slower outlooks, patchy geographic coverage, and deferred investments in enhanced market and climate monitoring.[xii]To secure a sustained funding stream, State and congressional appropriators must prioritize dedicated appropriations, establish a standing interagency funding agreement with USAID, and re‑commit to restoring country teams and partner contracts so FEWS NET’s crucial analytic products and field coverage remain stable and timely.
Will We Act?
FEWS NET is a technologically advanced, politically vital, and highly effective system. It gives the international community an unprecedented ability to anticipate and quantify famine risk, combining satellite data with deep local knowledge to produce warnings that are both credible and actionable.
The 2011 Somalia famine was the prototype of what happens when warnings are ignored. Every crisis since then is further evidence that the greatest challenge is not in the technology of prediction, but in the politics of action. The systems we have for predicting crises are often far more advanced than our collective willingness to act on those warnings before it’s too late. The existence of FEWS NET forces policy makers to confront this difficult truth, and without proper funding, the United States turns its head at millions of preventable deaths.
[i]FEWS NET, “FEWS NET,” FEWS NET website, https://fews.net/ (accessed April 8, 2026).
[ii] World Hunger Education Service, “In Memoriam: The U.S. Famine Early Warning System Known as FEWS, as well as SERVIR,” World Hunger (website), https://www.worldhunger.org/in-memoriam-the-us-famine-early-warning-system-known-as-fews-as-well-as-servir/ (accessed April 27, 2026).
[iii]Devex. “FEWS NET — Once USAID’s Flagship Famine Warning System Is Back Online.” Devex. https://www.devex.com/news/fews-net-once-usaid-s-flagship-famine-warning-system-is-back-online-110357.
[iv]Hillbruner, Chris, and Grainne Moloney. “When Early Warning Is Not Enough—Lessons Learned from the 2011 Somalia Famine.” Global Food Security 1, no. 1 (2012): 20–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2012.08.001.
[v]“UN Declares Famine in Two Regions of Southern Somalia.” UN News, July 20, 2011. https://news.un.org/en/story/2011/07/382072.
[vi]FEWS NET, “Ethiopia,” FEWS NET (country page), https://fews.net/east-africa/ethiopia (accessed April 8, 2026).
[vii]Backer, David, and Trey Billing. “Validating Famine Early Warning Systems Network Projections of Food Security in Africa, 2009–2020.” Global Food Security 29 (2021): 100510. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2021.100510.
[viii]Funk, Chris, Shraddhanand Shukla, Wassila Mamadou Thiaw, et al. “Recognizing the Famine Early Warning Systems Network: Over 30 Years of Drought Early Warning Science Advances and Partnerships Promoting Global Food Security.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 100, no. 6 (2019): 1011–27. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0233.1.
[ix]Brown, Molly E. “Zimbabwe’s Crisis of 2006–2007.” In Famine Early Warning Systems and Remote Sensing Data, 269–282. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-75369-8_16.
[x]United Nations Information Service Vienna (UNIS), G. Gingrich, PDF, https://unis.unvienna.org/pdf/gingrich.pdf (accessed April 8, 2026).
[xi]AP News, “AP News story,” AP News, https://apnews.com/article/usaid-trump-musk-leave-staffers-9099c61b33aa7e4bfd40e849853be3b6 (accessed April 8, 2026).
[xii]U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), “Early‑Warning System — Food Security,” USGS EROS Center, https://www.usgs.gov/centers/eros/science/early-warning-system-food-security (accessed April 8, 2026
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